Newsletter

Top 10 - Undervalued Players
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#5 Larry Johnson: Last season, Larry Johnson was #4 in our most overvalued players and this year he makes our list of most undervalued players. The biggest concern about Johnson is that he has only played 20 games in the past two years but when he plays he is still a very good running back. The offensive line which allowed him to average 4.5 yards per carry in 2008 will bring back four of its starters and the other spot will be an upgrade over last year. It is no secret that Todd Haley’s offense is a pass-first attack but last season the Chiefs were already a pass-first attack as their running backs only had 311 carries. The Cardinals running backs (Todd Haley was offensive coordinator of the Cardinals in 2008) had 306 carries in 2008, but if we compare both offenses, the Chiefs have a much better run blocking line than the Cardinals and their passing game is nowhere near as good as the Arizona passing game. For those reasons, the Chiefs should run the ball more this year and there is no reason why Johnson can’t average more than the 16 carries per game he had in 2008. Larry Johnson is a high risk player because of his injuries and the new offense in Kansas City but a RB who is clearly #1 on his team should not be the 25th RB drafted in fantasy leagues.

#4 Donald Driver: In 2008, Driver had his worst season in five years but he still had 74 catches for over 1,000 yards and five touchdowns. Despite a slow start to the year, Driver bounced back in the final nine games with 45 catches, two more than Jennings. This season the Packers will have pretty much the same offense as they did last season and there’s no reason why Driver would have fewer than 70 receptions this year. It is hard to understand how a receiver who has finished in the top 30 for five consecutive seasons and who is still only 34 gets drafted in the 35 to 40 range in most leagues. Driver isn’t a top ten receiver like he was a few years ago but he is still a very safe bet to be a top 30 or even top 25 receiver and could surprise if he picks up where he left off last season.

#3 Torry Holt: The former St. Louis Rams receiver is our most underrated wide receiver in 2009 and is a player we would be extremely happy to have in all of our leagues this season. Until last season, Holt had finished amongst the top 15 receivers for eight consecutive seasons but he struggled in 2008, just like the entire offense in St. Louis.  This year, Holt moves to a much better offense where he will be the clear #1 receiver and he is still only 33 years old. The most interesting thing about Holt is that he is another receiver who has potential to be a top 15 receiver despite being drafted so late. In order to be better than his average draft position, Holt would probably have to catch about 60 to 65 passes which isn’t a lot if you consider that Matt Jones had 65 catches in 12 games as the #1 WR in the Jaguars offense last season.

#2 Steve Slaton: Very few people seem to realize this but, in 2008, Steve Slaton had more fantasy points in point per reception leagues than Adrian Peterson. The Texans will bring back the same five starters on the offensive line as in 2008 and the rest of the offense will also be pretty much the same as last year. The only reason that could explain why Peterson is being drafted #1 overall while Slaton falls to the end of the first round is that Peterson is much bigger and stronger than Slaton. However, we do not understand why size would matter if Slaton is able to be a top running back at 5’9”and 215 lbs. The Texans probably don’t want to give Slaton more than 260 to 280 carries per year but Brian Westbrook was a top running back for a number of years despite never carrying the ball more than 280 times in a season. Slaton is still a risk because he is unproven but he is the #1 RB in a very good offense offense and we wouldn’t be surprised at all if he was a top five running back in PPR leagues in 2009.

#1 David Garrard: There has been a lot of controversy regarding our ranking of David Garrard and many believe that we are crazy to rank him in out top five. However, we strongly believe that he will outperform his average draft position (16th best quarterback) and has a good chance of being a top five quarterback in 2009. If you take Garrard’s final ten games in 2008 (after his center Brad Meester came back), he would project to 290 fantasy points. Even more interesting, if you add the 11 complete games that he played in 2007, he averages 228 passing yards, 1.4 TDs, 0.6 INTs and 19 rushing yards per game over those 21 games in the past two years. Over 16 games, those numbers would give him 302 fantasy points which would have made him the eighth best QB in 2008 but only a few points behind Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb. On top of that, there are three reasons why he could improve this year: the Jaguars will get their two starting guards back, they have upgraded the two tackle positions and they added Torry Holt at WR. Garrard has been a top eight quarterback over the past two years if we forget the six games last season where he was missing all three of his interior linemen so imagine what he can do with a much improved line and a seven-time Pro Bowler to throw to. There is absolutely no reason why Garrard should be ranked outside the top ten quarterbacks and we strongly believe that with those upgrades, he can move into the top five. For those reasons he is #1 on our 2009 list of most undervalued players.

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