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Top 10 - Undervalued Players

#10 Marion Barber: Barber had a difficult end to the 2008 season because of a toe injury but people seem to forget that until that point he was a top fantasy performer. In his 11 full games before his injury, Barber had 215 carries for 838 yards, 46 receptions for 353 yards and 8 total TDs. Over 16 games those numbers would have given him 310 fantasy points in PPR leagues and made him the #1 RB in 2008. The question therefore is what has changed since week 12 of last year? Barber had a toe injury but he is now recovered, Owens is gone, all five starters are back on the offensive line and Choice showed that he was pretty talented in the final few games of the year. It doesn’t make much sense that any of those things could drop Barber to the middle of the second round in fantasy drafts.  Even if Barber has to split carries with Jones and Choice, he is still a top receiving threat and he has 37 TDs in the last three years. 

#9 Jason Campbell: Campbell is one of those players whose stats we projected not expecting any major surprises but for some reason we have him about ten spots higher in our quarterback rankings than his average draft position. First of all, Campbell has no competition at the quarterback position which isn’t true for most quarterbacks being drafted around the same spot as him. He should once again run for close to 250 yards and 1 TD as he has done in the past two years and he should also attempt about 500 passes once again. Since joining the NFL in 2006, Campbell has averaged between 15 and 16 fantasy points per game in every season which would put him somewhere between 17 and 24 in quarterback rankings. However, he has two very important statistics than could only go up this year. In the past two years, he has only averaged 6.4 yards per attempt and 0.027 TDs per attempt. Quarterbacks that attempted over 300 passes in three consecutive seasons and had between 6.0 and 6.7 yards per attempt in the first two seasons, like Campbell, averaged almost 6.9 in the third season. As for those who attempted over 300 passes in three consecutive seasons and had between 0.02 and 0.035 TDs per attempt in the first two seasons, they averaged 0.039 TDs per attempt in the third season.  If those two numbers go up like they did for other quarterbacks in his situation, Campbell should be a top 16 QB in 2009, well ahead of his average draft position.

#8 Owen Daniels: Daniels has been pretty consistent over the past two years and he should once again have over 60 catches and over 700 yards. There are however two very important statistics that most people don’t look at which make him a top five TE in our opinion. First, he has caught 96 of Schaub’s 443 completions over the past two years so if Schaub stays healthy and completes about 340 passes like most people expect him to, Daniels should catch about 75 passes in 2009. If we look at his TDs per receptions numbers, tight ends that had over 40 catches in three consecutive seasons and had less than 0.06 TDs per reception in the first two seasons averaged 0.065 TDs per reception in the following year. This means that Daniels should score about five touchdowns this year and should be a top five tight end in 2009 despite being drafted as the eighth tight end in most leagues.

#7 Jamal Lewis: Lewis has averaged 289 carries and 27 receptions over the last two years and his backup is still Jerome Harrison, but for some reason he is still being drafted in the 35 to 40 range for running backs. Lewis averaged only 3.6 yards per carry last season but injuries to the offensive line slowed him down and they will be much better with a healthy Steinbach and upgrades on the right side of the line. Even if he gets fewer carries than last year, Lewis could have as many yards and he is almost certain to get more touchdowns than last year. However, for some reason he is being drafted later than running backs like LenDale White, Felix Jones, Jonathan and Darren Sproles who are all #2 running backs and might not even get 150 carries this year.  

#6 Jerricho Cotchery: Cotchery was one of our most undervalued players last season before going up in all rankings after the Jets acquired Brett Favre. Cotchery had his worst season in three years in 2008 with only 71 catches but people seem to forget that he had 164 in the two previous seasons with Clemens and Pennington throwing him the ball. This season, he becomes the clear #1 receiver in the Jets offense after the departure of Laveranues Coles but he is still available in most leagues after the top 30 receivers. Some might argue that the departure of Coles will hurt Cotchery as he will see more double coverage but in 2007, Cotchery caught 29 balls in five games while Coles was out with an injury. Overall he is a safe option having caught 235 passes in the past three years but he has the potential to be a top ten receiver as the #1 WR in the Jets offense, not something you can say about many of the receivers available in the seventh round.