Newsletter

Predicting the Top 10 Running Backs Based on Historical Trends

Year after year there are surprises and disappointments in the NFL even though before the season starts many seem convinced that they can predict the top five or ten players at each position. We decided to look at past seasons to try and predict which players will finish in the top ten and where the top ten in pre-season rankings will end up at the end of season. This is more of a fun article that will likely make us look foolish at the end of the season and we do not recommend drafting based on this but it offers a different perspective and hopefully will make everyone understand that there are no sure things in the NFL. In the first article of this series of three we will look at the running back position.

Where does the pre-season top 10 end up?

2009 top 5 pre-season running backs:
Adrian Peterson
Maurice Jones-Drew
Matt Forte
Michael Turner
LaDainian Tomlinson

Will remain in the top 5:
Our Prediction: Maurice Jones-Drew and Matt Forte
Maurice Jones-Drew and Matt Forte are our two favorite running backs in point per reception leagues and we believe they are the two who will remain in the top five. Jones-Drew has been a solid running back for a few years and this year he will see more carries and has an improved offensive line. Forte was the number one fantasy running back in 2008 and should continue to perform at a high level although his number of receptions may drop slightly

Will finish in the 6 to 10 range:
Our Prediction: Adrian Peterson
Despite all the hype that Adrian Peterson is getting this season, last season he finished the year as the ninth best running back in PPR leagues and could easily be in that range once again. Peterson has been consistent over the past two years but he does not get a lot of receptions and the loss of Matt Birk could hurt him more than we think. Do not be surprised if Peterson fails to finish in the top five once again.

Will finish in the 11 to 20 range:
Our Prediction: LaDainian Tomlinson
Tomlinson has been one of the best running backs in fantasy football for the past eight years but he is approaching the end of his career and could slow down this season. Last year he dealt with injuries late in the year and although he is healthy right now, he may see fewer touches than in previous years. Tomlinson will have to split carries with Darren Sproles and could be limited to 280 carries and 30 to 40 receptions and be left out of the top ten.

Will finish outside the top 20:
Our Prediction: Michael Turner
Turner had an excellent season in 2008 but he is not a threat in the passing game and he has no room to improve any of his other numbers. Even if Turner still has about 330 carries, because of the likely drop in touchdowns, he would probably finish outside the top 15 in point per reception leagues and could drop much lower if the Falcons decide to limit his carries. In 2009, Turner is a player with very limited upside but a lot of downside and should not even be considered as a top five fantasy running back. He is the most overrated running back in fantasy football this season and could easily drop outside the top 20.

2009 pre-season 6 to 10 running backs:
DeAngelo Williams
Steven Jackson
Chris Johnson
Frank Gore
Steve Slaton

Will move into the top 5:
Our Prediction: Steve Slaton
Despite being only 5’9” and 200 lbs, Slaton had an excellent 2008 season and received more carries late in the year. Slaton had 130 carries in the final six games which would project to over 340 over 16 games. The Texans will have the same offensive line as last year and a healthy Matt Schaub should also help Slaton. Last season Schaub completed 251 passes and 42 of those were to Slaton which means that Slaton could catch close to 60 this year. There are rumors that he could lose goal line touches in 2009 but he is such a receiving threat that he has a chance to be a top five running back even with only six or seven rushing TDs.

Will remain in the 6 to 10 range:
Our Prediction: Frank Gore
Frank Gore has been a top ten running back in two of the past three years and would have made the top ten last year had he played all 16 games. The Niners are planning to run a lot in 2009 and Gore is a pretty safe bet to remain in the top ten even if he has to split some carries with Glen Coffee.

Will finish in the 11 to 15 range:
Our Prediction: Chris Johnson
Chris Johnson was very impressive in his rookie season with over 1,200 rushing yards on only 250 carries and nine rushing touchdowns. Johnson will still be a solid fantasy performer in 2009 because of his receptions but the Titans are very unlikely to have 24 rushing touchdowns once again. We project the Titans to rush for about 16 rushing TDs in 2009 but LenDale White will get at least half of those and possibly much more so Johnson could be left with only four or five and finish outside the top ten.

Will finish outside the top 15:
Our Prediction: Steven Jackson and DeAngelo Williams
Even if we have Steven Jackson at number six in our running back rankings we believe he is the most likely of this group to finish outside the top 15 along with DeAngelo Williams. Jackson is a very talented back but he has played only 24 games in the past two seasons and finished as the 15th best RB in each of the last two seasons. If Jackson plays all 16 games he will likely be a top five running back but it’s no sure thing for him. As for DeAngelo Williams, we believe he is one of the most overrated running backs in 2009. As we have said many times on this site, touchdowns are very inconsistent from year to year and it is extremely unlikely that Williams will have 20 total TDs once again. He is also extremely unlikely to average 5.5 yards per carry once again and a drop in both of those statistics will leave him out of the top 15 and possibly even the top 20.

Where was the top 10 drafted?

Will finish in the top 5:
Three of them as we mentioned previously should come from the pre-season top ten in Jones-Drew, Forte and Slaton which leaves one spot for a RB from the 11 to 20 range and one from the 21 to 30 range. In the 11 to 20 group, the two running backs that we believe could finish in the top five are Brian Westbrook and Marion Barber. Westbrook was a top five RB for two straight seasons before last year but he has struggled with injuries his entire career and has never played 16 games in a season. Barber has never had more than 240 carries in a season but he was on pace for 310 fantasy points (#1 fantasy RB) before suffering an injury in week 13 last year. Unfortunately he may have to split carries with Felix Jones and Tashard Choice this year (more so than last year) so we have to go with Brian Westbrook. Of the players in the 21 to 30 range we ruled out Lynch, Moreno, Parker, Ward, Wells and White right away for various reasons including suspension, not enough carries, not enough goal line carries and a poor offensive line. We were then left with Joseph Addai, Thomas Jones, Larry Johnson and Ray Rice. Addai has the team and skills but has to compete with Donald Brown, Jones finished in the top five last year but has a lot of competition behind him, Johnson is very talented but on a poor team and has played only 20 games in the past two seasons and Rice has not proven anything yet. We believe Addai, Jones and Johnson are all underrated this season because of the threat from young running backs behind them but if one of these guys is going to finish in the top five we believe it will be Ray Rice. The Ravens are a very good team that runs the balls a lot and that will throw to their running backs a lot. If Rice performs well early in the year, he could see a lot of touches and score more and more fantasy points as the season progresses.
Our Prediction: M. Jones-Drew, M. Forte, S. Slaton, B. Westbrook and R. Rice

Will finish in the 6 to 10 range:
Two of the players from this group should come from the pre-season top ten (as mentioned previously) and they are Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore. This leaves three spots which should come from the 11 to 15 range, 16 to 30 range and outside the 30. The choice from the 11 to 15 range is Marion Barber, the other player that we considered for the top five. In the 16 to 30 range there are three players that we all really like and have ranked all very close in our player rankings and they are: Ryan Grant, Kevin Smith and Darren McFadden. As much as we like Smith we have to go with Grant simply because he is on a better team. Both should get over 300 carries but despite only scoring five touchdowns in 2008, Grant will get more opportunities to score this year. The other thing that hurt Grant last year was that he only had 18 receptions but 10 of those came in the final four games so he could get 30 to 40 this year. Picking a player from outside the top 30 is always fun and involves a lot of luck but this year we really like Cedric Benson and believe he has a respectable chance of being a top ten RB. The Bengals line is much improved in 2009, Carson Palmer is back and Benson is the obvious choice to start. Rudi Johnson was a top 12 RB for three consecutive seasons in this offense and Benson will get as many opportunities as Johnson did a few years ago, he’ll just have to stay healthy.
Our Prediction: A. Peterson, F. Gore, M. Barber, R. Grant and C. Benson