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Predicting the Top 10 Quarterbacks Based on Historical Trends

Year after year there are surprises and disappointments in the NFL even though before the season starts many seem convinced that they can predict the top five or ten players at each position. We decided to look at past seasons to try and predict which players will finish in the top ten and where the top ten in pre-season rankings will end up at the end of season. This is more of a fun article that will likely make us look foolish at the end of the season and we do not recommend drafting based on this but it offers a different perspective and hopefully will make everyone understand that there are no sure things in the NFL. In the first article of this series of three we will look at the quarterback position.

Where does the pre-season top 10 end up?

2009 top 5 pre-season quarterbacks:
Drew Brees
Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
Aaron Rodgers
Philip Rivers

Will remain in the top 5:
Our Prediction: Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady
We would like to make a bold prediction and say that one of these will fall out of the top five but it’s not going to happen unless one of them suffers an injury. Brees has been a top five quarterback in every season since joining the Saints in 2006 and there is no reason why this trend can’t continue. Manning has finished in the top five in nine of the past ten seasons and should return to the top five this season with a healthier offensive line. Finally Tom Brady missed the entire 2008 season with an injury but has looked sharp so far in pre-season and should be one of the top quarterbacks once again.

Will finish in the 6 to 10 range:
Our Prediction: Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers surprised everyone last season finishing the year as the second best quarterback and should see a small set back this year. Normally there are only three of the top five that remain in the top ten but the Packers will have pretty much the exact same offense as last year so Rodgers is a very safe option despite entering only his second season as a starter. The Packers should however have an improved running game and Rodgers won’t match last year’s total of four rushing touchdowns so he will see a small set back.

Will finish outside the top 20:
Our Prediction: Philip Rivers
Every year there is a top five quarterback that disappoints and this year we think it will be Philip Rivers. Last season, Rivers suddenly averaged 17% yards per attempt more than his average from the two previous seasons and also had 55% more touchdowns per pass attempt. It might be a bit of a reach to say that Rivers will finish outside the top 20 but if one of these five does, we predict that it will be Rivers.

2009 pre-season 6 to 10 quarterbacks:
Kurt Warner
Tony Romo
Donovan McNabb
Matt Ryan
Jay Cutler

Will move into the top 5:
Our Prediction: Tony Romo
In four of the last five seasons a quarterback in the pre-season six to ten range has moved up into the top five. This one is a pretty easy prediction for us since we already have Romo in the top five of our player rankings. He was the second best quarterback in 2007 and most likely would have been in the top five last season had he not missed three games due to an injury. His group of receivers is weaker than last year after the departure of Terrell Owens but it shouldn’t stop him from having a very good season.

Will remain in the 6 to 10 range:
Our Prediction: Kurt Warner
Kurt Warner has been a top ten quarterback in each of the past two seasons and he should continue to perform at a high level despite his age and the loss of offensive coordinator Todd Haley. His statistics will probably drop because he won’t attempt 630 passes again but he will throw enough to be a top ten QB.

Will finish in the 11 to 15 range:
Our Prediction: Donovan McNabb
McNabb has finished in the top ten only twice since 2002 so despite his talent, it’s not a huge reach to have him finish outside the top ten but he has finished in the top 15 in eight of the past nine seasons. McNabb could easily be a top five QB this season but with his history of injuries he could miss a few games and finish in the 11 to 15 range.

Will finish outside the top 15:
Our Prediction: Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler
Ryan had an excellent season in 2008 but he was only the 15th best fantasy QB and we don’t see him improving much. He may attempt a few more passes but his yards per attempt and touchdowns per attempt should drop which would leave him outside the top 15. Jay Cutler is a huge wildcard this year and could be in the top ten or outside the top 20. He is on a run-first offense with very few receivers to throw to but he is a very talented player. We believe Cutler will have a pretty good year but Romo, Warner and McNabb all have a better chance of remaining in the top 15.

Where was the top 10 drafted?

Will finish in the top 5:
Four of them as we mentioned previously should come from the pre-season top ten in Brees, Brady, Manning and Romo which leaves one spot for a QB from outside the top 15. For those that have been looking at our projections, you know that we are very high on David Garrard this season and believe he can crack the top five this season. If you take Garrard’s final ten games in 2008 (after his center Brad Meester came back), he would project to 290 fantasy points. On top of that, there are three reasons why he could improve this year: the Jaguars will get their two starting guards back, they have upgraded the two tackle positions and they added Torry Holt at WR. Garrard has been a top eight quarterback over the past two years if we forget the six games last season where he was missing all three of his interior linemen so imagine what he can do with a much improved line and a seven-time Pro Bowler to throw to.
Our Prediction: D. Brees, T. Brady, P. Manning, T. Romo and D. Garrard

Will finish in the 6 to 10 range:
Two of the players from this group should come from the pre-season top ten (as mentioned previously) and they are Aaron Rodgers and Kurt Warner. This leaves three spots which should come from the 11 to 15 range, 16 to 20 range and outside the 20. The choice from the 11 to 15 range is easy as we already have Matt Schaub as our tenth ranked QB in our player rankings. He would have been a top ten QB last year had he not been hurt and he has the talent around him to be a top fantasy performer. In the 16 to 20 range, our choices are Matt Cassel, Brett Favre, Trent Edwards and Joe Flacco (we already have Garrard in our top five). Favre and Flacco are both on run-first teams so we don’t think either has a chance at the top ten. We think Cassel and Edwards both have a chance at being top ten quarterbacks this year but because of Cassel’s injury we have to go with Edwards. He has an improved offensive line, two excellent wide receivers in Owens and Evans and two good running backs in Lynch and Jackson. Edwards has been disappointing so far in his NFL season but this year he will have a lot of talent around him and could have a huge season. Of the quarterbacks ranked outside the top 20 we believe that Shaun Hill has the best chance to breakout. Hill had 170 fantasy points in his nine starts last season which projects to over 300 points over 16 games and would have made him a ton ten QB. The Niners also have an improved offensive line and have a ton of depth at the receiver position.
Our Prediction: A. Rodgers, K. Warner, M. Schaub, T. Edwards and S. Hill