Newsletter

Top 10 - Overvalued Players
(page 2)

#5 Calvin Johnson: The Lions second overall pick in 2007 had a very impressive sophomore season finishing the year as the third best receiver in fantasy football. However, Johnson ranked 17th in the NFL for receptions and his yards per reception and touchdown numbers were higher than normal. Instead of catching one touchdown every 6.5 catches like last year, he will likely go back to about one for every 9 or 10 receptions. Add to that a small drop in yards per reception and Johnson drops outside the top ten receivers. Wide receivers are very inconsistent from year to year so if you are going to draft a receiver in the second round, you need to go with much safer options than Johnson. He is on a team that did not win a single game last year and who may have a rookie as their starting quarterback. There is no way that he should get drafted before guys like Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith and Wes Welker who may not have as much upside but have proven more than once that they are top ten receivers

#4 Roy Williams: Williams may be the number one receiver in Dallas but it makes no sense that a receiver who has finished in the top 25 only once in five years can be drafted amongst the 20 or even 15 best receivers in fantasy football. Williams had only 19 catches in ten games with the Cowboys last season despite being targeted 42 times. Since joining the NFL, he has caught less than 50% of the balls being thrown his way in three of his five seasons. Hines Ward, who is being drafted about two rounds later on average, has caught 65% of the balls thrown in his direction in the past seven years. Williams will get more opportunities with the departure of Owens but Witten is still the number one target in the passing offense and Barber, Crayton and Austin will get their fair share of receptions as well. For those reasons we expect Williams to finish outside the top 30 receivers and he will fail to live up to expectations once again.

#3 Roddy White:  White has been very impressive in the last two seasons catching 171 passes including 13 touchdowns and we would normally be very high on him but the arrival of Tony Gonzalez will limit his receptions. We expect Ryan to complete about 285 passes, 20 more than last year, but the Atlanta tight ends only caught 19 passes last season. If you expect Gonzalez to catch 70 to 80 passes this season, it means that he will need to steal about 40 from running backs and wide receivers. Even if only 10 to 15 of those come from White, he would suffer a drop of about 15% in fantasy points. As the sixth best receiver drafted, people are still expecting him to catch 85 passes which is very unlikely being on a run-first team with the addition of a top tight end.

#2 DeAngelo Williams: Despite finishing the year as the second best running back in point per reception leagues last season, we would not be surprised to see DeAngelo Williams drop outside the top 15 or even top 20 running backs in 2009. Last season he had 20 touchdowns on 296 touches or 0.068 touchdowns per touch. Of the 12 running backs who had over 200 carries in two consecutive seasons and had over 0.055 touchdowns per touch in the first year, only two still had above 0.055 in the following year and the average drop was 33%. If we look at players who had above 5.0 yards per carry, they average only 4.55 the following year, an average drop of 14%. Put those two together and even if Williams has just as many touches as last year, he will have over 200 yard less and about seven fewer touchdowns than last year. If that is not enough, he has Jonathan Stewart as his backup who will probably see an increase in touches in his second season.

#1 Michael Turner: Coming at number one on our list this season is Michael Turner, the third Falcons player on this year’s list but for much different reasons than the other two. Turner had 377 carries for 1,699 yards (4.5 YPC) and 17 TDs last year. RBs that have between 360 and 400 carries in a season and play at least 15 games in the next season average 342 carries. The drop will probably be slightly more for Turner because the Falcons will look to pass more with the addition of Gonzalez and with Ryan entering his second NFL season. The offensive line is the same as last year but they have little depth. Even if run blocking is slightly better with the addition of Gonzalez, Turner can’t average much more than the 4.5 yards per carry that he had last year. As for his touchdowns, he had 17 on 383 touches last season or 0.044 per touch. RBs who had over 250 carries in two consecutive seasons and who had between 0.04 and 0.05 touchdowns per touch average only 0.032 in the following year. Turner had an excellent season in 2008 but he is not a threat in the passing game and he has no room to improve any of his other numbers. Even if Turner still has about 330 carries, because of the likely drop in touchdowns, he would probably finish outside the top 15 in point per reception leagues and could drop much lower if the Falcons decide to limit his carries. In 2009, Turner is a player with very limited upside but a lot of downside and should not even be considered as a top five fantasy running back.

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