Understanding Defenses After Week 1
The second week of the season is always one of the most difficult
for which to select your starters. The difficulty for week two is
that every team has played only one game so you do not know if a
player had a good or bad week because he is on a good offense or
because he faced a bad defense. As the season goes on we have more
and more points of comparisons so decisions should get easier. This
analysis will help when evaluating match-ups and will determine how
much you should look at week one statistics and how much you should
look at the last year's statistics.
Unfortunately we only have data dating back to 2005 for this
analysis so it is not as precise as it could be but it is still
helpful. The following charts show how many fantasy points we expect
each team to give up to players for each position. For example we
expect the Lions to be the worst passing defense and give up 301.5
fantasy points to opposing QBs this season. Using data from the past
four years we noticed that the week one performance was about two to
four times less important than last year’s statistics (depending on
the position).
This chart should help you with your decisions but for specific
advice on who to start or sit join us LIVE every Friday at 11:00AM
on
USAToday.com or every Sunday in our
forums from 11:00AM to 1:00PM.
|
|
QB |
|
RB |
|
WR |
|
Lions |
301.5 |
Chiefs |
534.5 |
Seahawks |
527.5 |
|
Chiefs |
285.8 |
Lions |
504.8 |
Lions |
521.7 |
|
Rams |
282.9 |
Broncos |
475.2 |
Bears |
516.8 |
|
Cardinals |
281.3 |
Browns |
466.7 |
Cardinals |
513.3 |
|
Buccaneers |
280.9 |
Raiders |
465.7 |
Bills |
511.5 |
|
Bills |
280.7 |
Rams |
449.4 |
Bengals |
509.2 |
|
Patriots |
278.7 |
Texans |
437.9 |
49ers |
507.8 |
|
Chargers |
277.7 |
Colts |
424.5 |
Saints |
504.7 |
|
Jaguars |
277.7 |
49ers |
421.1 |
Jaguars |
503.9 |
|
Texans |
277.5 |
Cowboys |
413.3 |
Chargers |
503.2 |
|
Dolphins |
277.5 |
Falcons |
407.3 |
Chiefs |
503.1 |
|
Panthers |
276.0 |
Cardinals |
401.8 |
Rams |
501.7 |
|
Seahawks |
275.2 |
Jaguars |
393.8 |
Buccaneers |
501.3 |
|
49ers |
274.2 |
Bills |
390.5 |
Dolphins |
499.9 |
|
Saints |
273.0 |
Panthers |
390.2 |
Texans |
496.0 |
|
Bears |
272.4 |
Dolphins |
386.4 |
Browns |
493.7 |
|
Bengals |
272.3 |
Packers |
383.5 |
Titans |
493.6 |
|
Cowboys |
272.3 |
Bears |
383.3 |
Giants |
493.1 |
|
Raiders |
271.9 |
Buccaneers |
376.9 |
Cowboys |
492.9 |
|
Falcons |
271.5 |
Chargers |
376.4 |
Panthers |
492.6 |
|
Jets |
270.3 |
Saints |
373.8 |
Broncos |
491.1 |
|
Packers |
269.7 |
Patriots |
369.8 |
Jets |
488.0 |
|
Titans |
269.4 |
Redskins |
366.9 |
Patriots |
486.9 |
|
Redskins |
268.3 |
Eagles |
365.7 |
Redskins |
485.4 |
|
Vikings |
268.3 |
Vikings |
364.4 |
Packers |
484.0 |
|
Broncos |
267.7 |
Jets |
354.4 |
Falcons |
482.4 |
|
Giants |
267.1 |
Seahawks |
350.2 |
Vikings |
480.7 |
|
Ravens |
264.7 |
Bengals |
348.6 |
Raiders |
478.9 |
|
Browns |
263.0 |
Titans |
339.5 |
Ravens |
477.8 |
|
Steelers |
257.5 |
Giants |
338.7 |
Steelers |
467.9 |
|
Eagles |
252.8 |
Steelers |
334.2 |
Eagles |
466.3 |
|
Colts |
252.2 |
Ravens |
309.4 |
Colts |
449.4 |
|
|
TE |
|
PK |
|
DEF |
|
Chargers |
204.8 |
49ers |
153.2 |
Panthers |
221.7 |
|
Lions |
195.6 |
Lions |
146.0 |
Rams |
182.4 |
|
Chiefs |
184.6 |
Saints |
144.5 |
Bengals |
180.8 |
|
Rams |
182.0 |
Chiefs |
144.0 |
Dolphins |
175.8 |
|
Bills |
181.0 |
Buccaneers |
143.2 |
Redskins |
175.7 |
|
Jets |
178.1 |
Redskins |
140.3 |
Steelers |
172.0 |
|
Vikings |
177.9 |
Bears |
137.9 |
Browns |
170.3 |
|
Cowboys |
174.7 |
Cardinals |
137.6 |
Texans |
165.0 |
|
Titans |
174.5 |
Bills |
136.2 |
Lions |
164.4 |
|
Patriots |
174.4 |
Dolphins |
136.0 |
Vikings |
162.2 |
|
Panthers |
174.1 |
Packers |
135.2 |
49ers |
161.0 |
|
Jaguars |
171.2 |
Colts |
134.2 |
Bears |
160.3 |
|
Texans |
169.7 |
Vikings |
133.5 |
Raiders |
158.6 |
|
Bengals |
167.5 |
Panthers |
132.8 |
Jets |
153.9 |
|
Raiders |
164.9 |
Browns |
132.6 |
Cardinals |
150.6 |
|
Dolphins |
164.8 |
Bengals |
132.1 |
Patriots |
150.4 |
|
Falcons |
164.6 |
Rams |
131.0 |
Seahawks |
148.9 |
|
Giants |
163.1 |
Chargers |
130.5 |
Bills |
148.1 |
|
Packers |
161.9 |
Cowboys |
128.5 |
Colts |
147.0 |
|
Seahawks |
161.8 |
Texans |
128.5 |
Broncos |
146.5 |
|
Buccaneers |
161.3 |
Raiders |
127.6 |
Jaguars |
145.2 |
|
Broncos |
159.0 |
Ravens |
124.7 |
Packers |
144.1 |
|
Steelers |
158.1 |
Seahawks |
121.5 |
Titans |
141.7 |
|
Eagles |
156.0 |
Titans |
120.2 |
Ravens |
140.9 |
|
Cardinals |
155.7 |
Eagles |
119.4 |
Chiefs |
140.8 |
|
Bears |
153.8 |
Patriots |
118.1 |
Chargers |
140.6 |
|
Colts |
151.9 |
Jaguars |
117.9 |
Saints |
138.9 |
|
Ravens |
151.2 |
Broncos |
117.7 |
Buccaneers |
132.8 |
|
Redskins |
149.3 |
Steelers |
116.6 |
Cowboys |
132.5 |
|
Browns |
146.8 |
Giants |
116.6 |
Giants |
131.7 |
|
Saints |
141.4 |
Jets |
113.4 |
Eagles |
131.0 |
|
49ers |
129.3 |
Falcons |
106.2 |
Falcons |
129.4 |
|
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