Who Has The Edge - Steelers or Titans?
Tonight, the Super Bowl Champions Pittsburgh Steelers will face the
Tennessee Titans in the first game of the 2009 NFL season. Defending
the Vince Lombardi Trophy is never an easy thing to do especially in
the salary cap era. Of the first 42 Super Bowl champions, only eight
have defended their title successfully and none have won the
prestigious trophy three straight times. The Steelers
have a lot of pressure on their shoulders but what about the
Tennessee Titans whom everyone seems to forget despite their
excellent 13-3 season. In the past four years, the previous year’s
regular season champions have always won at least 11 games and have
won the Super Bowl twice. So who has the edge in 2009, the Super
Bowl champions or the regular season champions?
Since 1983, 19 teams have won the Super Bowl without winning the
regular season and 13 teams had the best record in the NFL outright
and did not win the Super Bowl that year. Of the 19 Super Bowl
champions, only three won the Super Bowl and two more made it at
least to the conference championship game. Surprisingly the same
numbers are true for the 13 regular season champions so based on
those, the Titans have a 12% better chance than the Steelers to make
it to the AFC championship game.
 The
Steelers however have the edge in the regular season since those
same 19 teams average 10.1 wins as opposed to only 9.6 for the 13
regular season champions. However, based on these same statistics,
the Titans have a 69% chance of winning ten games while the Steelers
have only a 63% chance.
As for tonight, the advantage goes to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Since
1997, 11 defending Super Bowl champions opened their season at home
and only the 1999 Broncos lost that first game. On the other hand, 9
of the 13 regular season champions opened the season with a victory
including 6 of 8 on the road. Moreover, of the nine teams that
opened the season with a win, five made it at least to the
conference championship game and three won the Super Bowl. In other
words, the Steelers have the edge tonight but if the Titans come
away with the victory, they are in excellent shape for the rest of
the year.
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